Iliyasu Gadu
Ilgad2009@gmail.com
08035355706 (Texts only)
As Nigerians are groaning under the excruciating effects of the current economic and political conditions in the country, there is a growing sense of dismay that the opposition on whom many have invested some hope to provide an alternative platform for the expected change in the 2027 elections, does not seem to show convincing signs of being up to the task.
Over the past months we have seen prominent members of the opposition embark on elaborate (flamboyant, if you like) processions tending to indicate that they are indeed working towards putting together a robust political framework to challenge the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) in the run up to the 2027 elections. We have also been hearing some fiery rhetoric from individual figures of the opposition concerning some of the trending issues in the country.
But beyond the optics of these engagements, very little in terms of arriving at a consensus and building the political structures that will provide the thrust for the up-coming political contest has emerged.
The absence of such clarity has raised some questions among Nigerians. Will the individual opposition figures now in different political parties merge together and form a new political party out of such merger? Or will they adopt an existing registered political party to serve the purpose?
Recently whilst on a visit to Kaduna and Kano, two cities where the cross currents of political activities are revving up, I took the opportunity to guage the scale of the political barometer. In Kano the APC is regarded almost like a swear word not just due to the fact that the party in power is the opposition New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), but also because overwhelmingly the folks attribute the hardships being faced there to the APC. An NNPP stalwart I spoke with was hopeful that the opposition in the country will dislodge the APC at the 2027 elections. ‘’ Here in Kano we know that the APC is eyeing the huge game-changing votes that Kano is well known for. But they also know that Kano’s votes will not be available to the ruling party no matter their machinations. They will not even get 25% of the votes. Mark my words.’’ He said.
In Kaduna the sense I got was that while the needle of the political barometer points towards the ruling APC likely retaining the state governorship, the presidential election is not certain for the APC amongst the electorate generally favours the opposition.
With this favourable expectation hanging in the air from the underlying political currents from Kano and Kaduna which typifies the mood generally in the country, is the opposition aware of the urgency and burden of historical responsibility thrust on them to do the needful?
A member of the opposition who is involved in the on-going political constructive engagements told me that indeed ‘’things are going on vigorously but behind the scenes for obvious reasons’’. ‘’Look Mallam Iliya, what we are involved in is a delicate task. There are complex issues involved which we need to iron out to the satisfaction of all involved and to Nigerians ultimately. And while we are at it we need to keep a very wary eye on the government which will do everything to know what we are up to and to seek to disrupt and scatter our efforts. You can be sure that soon enough we will come out and tell Nigerians what we have been up to. What I know is that when we come out Nigerians will witness and be part of the greatest and unprecedented political mobilization in the history of the country’’.
To Nigerians this will look like a soundbite typical of politicians; the reality seeping through however is that the opposition seem to be facing serious in their bid to cobble together a formidable political platform to fight the coming political battle.
Of all the issues that the opposition is confronted with in this regard two stand out more prominently; who will lead the coalition ticket and what alternative economic programme can the opposition provide from the prevailing one in the country in order to sway Nigerians to their side.
The choice of candidate to lead the opposition is very critical and the opposition needs to get it right from the onset or risk a potential blow back from the Nigerian voters in the run up to the 2027 elections.
It is clear that among the opposition figures three figures, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra state governor Peter Obi as well as former Rivers state governor Rotimi Amaechi stand out in the reckoning for the candidature.
On the basis of overall merit, Atiku Abubakar probably rates highest. In addition to his many pluses, he is without doubt the only political figure that probably can single handedly match the incumbent administration tricks for tricks, grit for grit. But then he is handicapped by the critical issues of ‘’zoning’’ of the presidency which looms very large in the Nigerian political firmament. At present the argument goes that President Tinubu is ruling the country on behalf of the southern part of the country and he must either be ‘’allowed’’ to serve out his two terms of eight years or if there are compelling reasons to vote him out, in the in the alternative a southerner will be preferred in keeping with the zoning principle. An Atiku Abubakar leading the opposition ticket will be a red flag to southern as well as the significant neutral voters in the country.
This is where Obi and Amaechi come in. Should the opposition be swayed by the ‘’zoning’’ argument this is where Obi and Amaechi come into the fray as both are capable of leading the coalition ticket on this score.
The other critical factor that Nigerians have hardly heard opposition figures address has to do with a compelling need for an alternative comprehensive economic plan for the country away from the current one being implemented by the Tinubu administration.
It is the harsh economic policies of the Tinubu administration that is compelling Nigerians to seek an alternative in the first place thereby making Nigerians to consider gravitating towards the opposition.
But the impression gaining ground among Nigerians is that matters of ego, entitlement, lack of vision among other factors are affecting the ability of the opposition to come up with the formidable platform that should provide an alternative to Nigerians as expected in 2027.
As the League of Northern Democrats, a political pressure group noted, Nigerians will not forgive the opposition should they fail to meet up the expectation.
The role of Frederick Forsyth in the Nigerian Civil War
Many things have been said about the author Frederick Forsyth who passed on last week at the age of 86 years.
Here in Nigeria, we not only knew him as the author of such ‘’Tomahawk’’ best sellers like ‘’The Day of Jackal’’, The Dogs of War’’ and my favourite ‘’The Odessa File’’ which inspired my abiding interest in Germany, we also knew him as the long-term friend of late Dim Chukwuemeka Ojukwu whose acquaintance he first made when he was sent to cover the Nigerian Civil war of 1967-70 for the BBC. Forsyth also wrote a biography on Dim Ojukwu titled ‘’Emeka’’
It came to light not too long ago that all through the time with Ikemba Ojukwu, Forsyth was an agent of the British Foreign Intelligence Service or MI6 for short. It did not come as a surprise to many.
But what many may not have known was that as MI6 spy, Forsyth was secretly feeding British Intelligence with details of the Biafran strategies and action plans especially their French connections. As Forsyth was a close confidant of Dim Ojukwu and was a regular attendant at meetings of the Biafran cabinet and War Council he was in a vantage position to glean a lot of real time intelligence and feed it to the British which enabled Her Majesty’s Government to keep tabs on the old enemy France in Biafra. Many top Biafrans at the time resented Forsyth’s closeness to Ojukwu.
I got this info from Chris Carpenter a British journalist and member of a group called Moral Rearmament founded by Frank Buchman an American during my sojourn in Britain. Carpenter also like Forsyth had links to British Intelligence.
Forsyth revered by many in Nigeria for being a close friend of Dim Ojukwu was also a spy on the sly for Britain.
