Iliyasu Gadu
Ilgad2009@gmail.com
08035355706 (Texts only)
Right now, the World is going through profound developments that would inevitably change the order of things and possibly set a new order of relations among nations going forward.
On the battlefields of the Russia/Ukraine and in the deserts of the Middle East, between the United States of America and Israel against Iran, as well as between the Houthis of Yemen against Saudi Arabia, the consequential developments of those conflicts are leading to significant changes in the tectonic plates of the global order.
In the Russia/Ukraine war, it is not just that the Russians will triumph over Ukraine; more than that Russian victory will mean the defeat of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO) which had poured trillions of dollars of military hardware and personnel in aide of the Ukrainians.
Significantly Russian defeat of Ukraine will also result in a halt to NATO’s strategic eastwards expansion towards Russia. Historical parallels to this are being linked by analysts to the battle of Stalingrad during the second world war and the 1812 invasion of Russia by the Grand Armee of French Emperor Napoleon.
On both occasions not only were the foreign forces turned back, this resulted in a new order in Europe and the world. Napoleon’s defeat in Russia resulted in the dismantling of the Napoleonic order in Europe and at the Congress of Vienna subsequently in 1815 with Napoleon exiled, a new Europe was established.
Similarly with the defeat of the Wehrmact at Stalingrad, the Soviet Forces raced on to destroy and dismantle the NAZI order in Europe and in the process established the Soviet order over a half of Europe.
The Ukraine war may not result in a direct military defeat for NATO as Imperial and Soviet Russia did to both Napoleon and Nazi Germany, but presently we are seeing the drastic effects in the economic and strategic spheres. Germany which is the driver of European economic performance finds itself cut off from cheap Russian energy resources. The consequence of this has been immense; massive cutbacks in the automotive and chemical industries resulting in Germany losing ground to China as the largest exporter of automobiles in the world.
France, the second largest economy in Europe after Germany is now in the throes of a massive socio-economic meltdown. City after city in the French Republic have been wracked by protests against high cost of living and related issues.
If, as seem likely, the Russians defeat the Ukrainians both Germany and France which are leading forces in the European Union (EU) and NATO could find themselves in strategic limbo, especially if events in the Middle East does not result in a decisive victory for the US and Israel against Iran and its proxies.
Already, the fracture in NATO is real with the alliance’s leader the US signifying its loss of interest in supporting Ukraine. The US has pointedly told the European members of NATO (read Germany, France and Britain) to prepare to do the heavy lifting in Ukraine. Invariably what tis means is that the US would prepare at some point to throw NATO under the Bus if it deems that the organization has become a burden and hindrance to its strategic interests in Europe and globally.
The US is presently reassessing its role in NATO in view of developments in the Middle East. Whereas US leadership role in Europe and NATO is pivotal, its involvement in the Middle East is more so. US can afford to offload some of its responsibilities and obligations in Europe to Germany, France and Britain, but for the sake of Israel and the petrodollar arrangement with Saudi Arabia it cannot contemplate relinquishing its hold in the Middle East.
The US ranks the protection of Israel and the petrodollar above its obligations to Europe and NATO.
But from events unfolding in both Ukraine and Iran war theatres, the US appears to be running short of its goals. A likely Russian victory in Ukraine will expose the weakness and cohesion of NATO and call to serious question the continued relevance of NATO especially as the European powers do not seem to have the capability to decisively defeat the Russians without the Americans.
But significantly for the Americans, the current stalemate against Iran is proving costly in both strategic and economic terms. Strategically, for the first time the US does not seem to guarantee Israel from total annihilation in the event of an all-out war with Iran. Secondly, as it is now with the significant and near total destruction of its strategic assets by the Iranians in the middle east, the US will find it difficult to protect and enforce its interests and those of its allies in the entire region effectively.
On the economic side of things, the closure of the straits of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb by Iran and its Yemeni Houthi proxies has resulted in the choking of a significant amount of oil exports to the world market resulting in significant rise in global oil prices.
If the US cannot guarantee the protection of Israel and its Middle East allies, as well as the unhindered flow of oil exports through the two choke points, then we are likely to see its collapse as the unchallenged global superpower that it has been over the years.
With Saudi Arabia now militarily in the cross hairs of the Houthis, who are bombing its oil, military and civilian infrastructures, there is a possibility that the monarchical structure of government developed and installed first by Britain in 1932 and sustained is heading for collapse. In the event of that happening, the petrodollar arrangement of 1974 in which Saudi Arabia and its gulf neighbours and OPEC agreed to designate trade in oil in US dollars would likely go under. This could likely result in the collapse or weakening of the US dollar as a global reserve currency with tremendous economic consequences to the world.
Many analysts believe that with these developments, the world is heading towards a multi-polar world with several powers emerging to assert themselves in regional and global affairs. In this regard we are likely to see powers acting alone or in concert with other powers in pursuit of their interests. We have seen the emergence of BRICS an organization of emerging global powers involving the likes of Russia, China, India and Brazil which is the most prominent of such developments. Between them economically these countries have over 40 per cent of global GDP. Militarily and strategically, they pack a hefty punch too with three nuclear armed powers, a total of over 5 million armed personnel and defence budgets running to trillions of dollars.
The central question that should agitate our minds is; where is Nigeria in all this and what should we do to join the fray as the world is restructuring? Are we going to remain onlookers and become prey to the new emerging powers or are we going to use the opportunity to launch ourselves into reckoning in the emerging new world order? What opportunities can we take advantage of relative to our strengths and how do we make up for our weaknesses in this endeavour?
To be continued next week
