Iliyasu Gadu
ilgad2009@gmail.com
08035355706 (Texts only)
I was not there to confirm it, but I was relibly told by sources in Vice-President Kashim Shettima’s office that there was almost unrestrained jubilation and celebration when the VP was confirmed as running mate for President Bola Tinubu in the forthcoming general elections in 2027.
There were hi-fives among his staff and some even went to the extent of ordering suya and drinks for all and sundry celebrations. Congratulatory calls from far and wide flooded the VP’s telephones such that some had to be deflected to his close aides to answer on his behalf.
Similar situations were also recorded in Borno and Yobe states the VP’s immediate constituency.
So why all the hoopla about President Tinubu’s retention of VP Shettima on the ticket for the 2027 elections?
For months the issue of whether VP Shettima would be President Tinubu’s running mate had been hanging up in the air. Readings from President Tinubu’s body language and with his antecedents as Governor of Lagos when he dispensed with three deputy governors indicated that Shettima would be given the heave-ho.
Indeed it was no secret that in the pecking order of the Tinubu administration, though nominally the number 2 man was to all intents and purposes merely tolerated for the position he occupies constitutionally. He was reduced to a toady neither trusted nor recognised to handle jobs befitting his status.
Hakeem Baba Ahmed, one time VP Shettima’s Political Adviser in the Tinubu presidency and now Chairman of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) who had to quit the job out of dissatifaction stated that ” Tinubu is treating Shettima as if he does not exist. A vice president should do a lot more than representing the president. I worked there. I know what I am talking about. I dont want to get him into trouble for speaking in this manner. A brilliant person like Shettima should do a lot more than this.”
From knowledgeable inside sources, the issue with VP Shettima started almost from the commencement of the Tinubu’s presidency. Ironically, the spirited role Shettima played during the 2023 presidential campaign on behalf of then candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu was what earned him (the VP) the arms-length treatment subsequently in the Tinubu presidency. Some close associates of President Tinubu who knew and witnessed the capacity displayed by Shettima in the run-up to the 2023 elections, warned the president to be wary of ”this Bronu man” who is alleged to keep the services of powerful ”marabouts”. Perhaps that was one of the underlying reasons why the presidency hurriedly built a state of the art residence for the VP away from the inner precincts of the Aso presidential villa which remains occupied to this day.
Aside from these niggling kitchen issues, President Tinubu had other calculations to keep the VP out of his political radar. From the tally of votes the Tinubu-Shettima ticket scored in the 2023 elections, it was clear that Shettima did not pull the weight expected of him in the North-East region which signified that going forward, the Tinubu presidency may have to think of replacing him if it became clear that he (the VP) may not be able to garner the chunk of votes not just in the North-East but in the entire 19 northern states where he is supposedly the highest ranking political figure in the presidency.
President Tinubu had come under intense pressure from groups who had vehemently opposed Shettima’s continued retention as VP on the grounds of the need to balance the religious content of the ticket. With Tinubu and Shettima belonging both to the Muslim faith, Christian groups in the country reckoned that the Muslim-Muslim presidency of Tinubu and Shettima was an affront to the Christian population of Nigeria. Thus they canvassed vigorously for Shettima to be dropped from the ticket to be replaced with a Christian figure if Tinubu wanted their support in the 2027 elections.
For quite sometime it appeared that President Tinubu was sold on the idea of replacing Shettima with a Christian figure despite the robust pushback from notable Muslim grandees who continued to threaten that such a move would lead to total loss for President Tinubu in the vote rich Muslim north in the 2027 elections.
Against this background, President Tinubu also weighed the alternative of replacing Shettima with a Muslim substitute. This further reinforced the argument that it was not merely the issue of replacing Shettima with a Christian substitute; it was more of not wanting him on the ticket on the basis of the earlier mentioned argument of lack of trust and of sufficient political capital on the part of VP Shettima.
Up until a few days to the announcement that President Tinubu was going to retain VP Shettima, it was a toss up whether he was going to be retained or not.
Now that against many expectations the VP had been retained on the ticket, what factors must weighed in to favour him?
There is no doubt that as the 2027 elections inch near, President Tinubu’s political calculations seem not to be as water tight as he may have hoped.
First, the groundswell of opinion especially in the North does not seem bullish for him. The indications overwhelmingly are that Tinubu may not secure the 60 per cent of the total votes that he garnered from the region with which he won the 2023 elections. Secondly if he dropped Shettima and replaced him with a Christian substitute from the north there is no guarantee the votes he might get from the Christian voters across the country might be enough to offset the possible loss of Muslim voters in the country. Thirdly, the possible Muslim replacements for Shettima namely former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and a few northern governors frequently mentioned in the public space have great question marks over them. Kwankwaso for instance appear to have been bloodied by his recent political summersaults vaulting from NNPP which he formed and led to the ADC briefly and now to the NDC as running mate to Peter Obi. The fact that he is right now facing a fierce rearguard action from his erstwhile political son Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf in his home political base of Kano has greatly diminished his political value as possible substitute for Shettima. As for the northen governors mentioned, the fact is that in reality, they will probably struggle to deliver their states let alone the north in the 2027 elections. In this regard, choosing any of them would amount to raising a red rag to northern political sensitivities. Choosing such political lightweights in critical upcoming elections would further cut what is left of Tinubu’s puny political stock of trust. It will be considered as one more proof of Tinubu’s serial in-your-face provocations against the north.
So President Tinubu who is desperately angling for northern votes in 2027 had no choice but to stick with Shettima despite himself.
The questions to ask though are that can Shettima bring to President Tinubu the much needed nothern votes in 2027? Is the retention of Shettima be a temporay measure to tide President Tinubu over only for him (VP Shettima) to be offloaded once the elections are won?
